🛒 Our Shopping List (Part II) — Compounding Quality 重點整理

Fairfax Financial Holdings ($FFH) — Berkshire-clone insurer, cheap at 1.2x book

—Fairfax Financial (FFH, Canadian TSX) copied Berkshire's model: collect insurance float, invest it opportunistically; goal is 15% annual book value growth
—CEO Prem Watsa has kept his salary at CAD 600,000 since 2000 — fully aligned with shareholders via ownership, not pay
—Has compounded book value at 12%/yr for over a decade; stock trades at just 8x earnings
—Interest entry only at 1.2x book value → target ~1,778 CAD; current price ~2,472 CAD — not yet buyable #價位
—~25% of business from faster-growing markets outside North America (e.g. India), a growth lever most peers lack

Fortinet ($FTNT) — cybersecurity flywheel, waiting for cheaper entry

$FTNT ↑看多長期

KOL would buy at 25x adjusted Forward PE → ~$65.7; current price ~$85.1 — not yet at target #價位 Stock-based compensation is 15% of net income; adjusted Forward PE is 33.6x vs headline 29.2x SASE and SecOps now 38% of billings growing 40%/yr; operating margins seen rising from 30% today to 36% by 2030 #催化劑 800,000+ customers feed live threat data, creating a defensive flywheel — more data → better detection → more customers

Heico ($HEI) — aerospace parts disruptor, quality at a steep discount to market

$HEI ↑看多長期

KOL willing to pay only 30x earnings → target ~$178; current price ~$270 — too expensive now #價位 Sells FAA-approved aircraft replacement parts 30-40% cheaper than OEMs; 30-year zero in-flight part failure record — moat is near-impossible to replicate #風險 Defense segment is embedded in targeting systems, satellites, and missile guidance — very high switching cost 14% revenue growth and 15% operating profit growth last quarter; ageing fleets and OEM price hikes make Heico's discount more attractive over time